LIAR GAME

Prediction: - The blonde guy betrayed them in exchange for getting 100 millions whenever he inspects - not sure how he's conveying the information yet - Regardless of me being right on the first prediction or not, he probably learnt fukunaga name when they made "small talk" and used that to make her confused Honestly there are a lot of way Yokoya could be making these guesses so I'm assuming purely based on how screen time was allocated.

Yokoya showing off with exact "Doubt 50.02" guesses seems like a blunder. He could pass off correct Doubt 100s as amazing coldreading for a long while, but the precise guesses immediately point to an info leak. I'm guessing Yokoya has a follow-up plot to leverage the post-reveal mistrust. But I can't think of one that's better than "I have perfect info for like 20 rounds lol", and I can't think of a plot that works with 5 rounds of leaked info but wouldn't with 20.

My view is that can't have perfect info for 20 rounds for Yokoya's team. I mean you MIGHT get some extra rounds for yourself, but the benefit is minimal compared to the fear and stress you make them feel instinctively as the one who just did such a thing on them. Honestly feel his clairvoyance is a brilliant idea to get under the opponents skin and make them doubt their own ability to play and make solid judgements when they meet him across the table in future. This one you can't counter with an empty case, those 'scars' remain and you also establish a position inside your team as well, as you get deeper into the rounds.

I don't think it matters, what matters is that the rule existed at all. Maybe he influenced them into adding it by putting pressure on them in the early game, or maybe he would have just made the blonde guy do it if it wasn't the case, or maybe he would have even found a whole different plan. Adaptability is a big part of being smart so I'm not surprised that he made a plan that best take advantage of their situation edit: just to be clear, when I said the rule was too convenient, I wasn't saying that he must have set it up, but that it wouldn't be included in the story if it was meaningless

That's fair. The only two explanations is that Yokoya's powers are legit, or he's bluffing but getting guaranteed info from somewhere, and you're basically calling DOUBT lol. And it's true that the "discussing the amount beforehand" adds credibility to your explanation. But if it's true that the blonde guy is the spy/information source, then I wonder why he betrayed the team and gave up information so easily when he has shown to be risk-adverse. Even if he gets richer, most of his team will suffer for it. All this from meeting Yokoya just once, and Yokoya could lie about helping him (basically why trust Yokoya over the team/Nao).

Well, Yokoya is a genius after all. And it's not a deal you can break, if Yokoya betrayed him, he could just stop giving informations and that's inconvenient. Instead, having him gain 100 millions every time can guarantee that the winners are Yokoya's team and this guy SPECIFICALLY, while everyone else on Nao's team loses. I don't remember if he already had an "inspect" turn before, but if he didn't, with 50 games and like 10 players, he would have 5 turns and win 500 millions. Add the 100 millions he had from the start and that would leave him with a whopping 200 millions after the 400 million deduction. You then add every other way to acquire money and let's say he reaches roughly 300 millions, even if he dropped out, he would then be left with 150 millions. This would then pay back his 100 million debt from the second game and he would be 50 millions in the green (I don't believe it was stated how much he got from the first game and iirc everyone ended up going neutral in the revival round)

the game is in many ways a solo game in the end, despite it having team mechanics. the only real team benefits he cares about are being allowed to smuggle, allowed to inspect, and winning leftover Night money that doesn't get smuggled after 50 turns. the last one happens regardless, and if he's raking in their smuggled money, then the last one doesn't even matter and he'd get a larger portion of it via second one. for the first one, he doesn't necessarily need to care since he only needs to obtain 300m of smuggled money to break even even if his own team is more trustworthy, they're both down by a lot and have no current plans to turn it around. why would Night even bother with the offer when Day team has been so wuss and behind anyways? guess the idiot thought it was worth the risk after considering all of that

I think him calling it a "plan" was likely just a way to avoid drawing attention to himself. It's sort of similar to what Nao did during the game against Fukunaga by manipulating the results in such a way that it was too late when Fukunaga started getting suspicious. It would be a lot more suspicious if he just said nothing and then consistently guessed right whenever it's his turn to inspect. He might try to convince his team to bet more and empty their reserves, but that seems too risky without much to gain.

Prediction: The blonde guy betrayed them in exchange for getting 100 millions whenever he inspects In the previous episode I did theorize that betrayals could be part of the strategy... But the problem is that he can't keep this going for a long time; The second his strategy 'fails' they'll turn on him, or at the very least stop listening to him. not sure how he's conveying the information yet I don't know if this is how, but in another comment I theorized ono a different cheat, one that is linked to the routes; They spent WAY too much time showing us the intricate ways of the route system (when there's no reason for that, could've been 2 rooms adjacent to one soundproof room and no routes or anything...) So I think the routes matter, and they can do something OTHER than just get to the inspection room; Maybe they can meet to talk, or maybe they can observe what the others are doing, etc. Honestly there are a lot of way Yokoya could be making these guesses 0 or 100m is fine, the 50.01m is fine too because I considered that soon as she said it, and from this point, 50.02m as well if you know your opponents are one-level thinking fools and won't find anything better. But 90.01m is impossible to guess. Which means there IS a cheat or a betrayal or something... (Unless he truly is clairvoyant, but that would be silly!)

But the problem is that he can't keep this going for a long time; I would guess that's why his "reward" is kept apart from his betrayal- If Yokoya constantly failed to guess his amount and his amount only, he would immediately get caught, but by doing it when everyone else also has a chance to win, he's just being competent. The second his strategy 'fails' they'll turn on him, or at the very least stop listening to him. I do however agree with that. Akiyama isn't stupid, he will notice if the blonde guy is constantly rewarded. But then, why would Yokoya care? He gets to build a lead. Meanwhile the blonde guy likely just trusts the plan and hasn't considered it. Once they catch him, he will be alienated from the group and they probably won't let him inspect anymore as punishment (since that's the primary way to get money aside from the group win). They spent WAY too much time showing us the intricate ways of the route system (when there's no reason for that, could've been 2 rooms adjacent to one soundproof room and no routes or anything...) This might be true. But I found the explanation too convoluted to actually care. There might be a way hidden within the many details associated with it but a good mystery doesn't make you look for a needle in a haystack

I figure there is a trick or cheat yokoya is pulling to know for sure the exact amounts. I dont want to chalk it up to like gut feeling for yokoya of "ok akiyama did 100m last round so this round he goes low/nothing" etc. etc. I do think Nao is also going to do something this round to just continue her growth, but see how it goes. I can see your thing with Nao's plan, and my guess will be Nao is the last smuggler/inspector.

I see why Nerco hyped Yokoya. Man had a 100% accuracy. Finally, an opponent that could challenge Akiyama. Until Yokoya, Akiyama had bested his opponent, even as recent as his inspection round. Now he’s got no counter to Yokoya. I reckon Akiyama folded this round and simply went with his team’s suggestion as his main focus was to size Yokoya up. Nao would likely be instrumental to finding out Yokoya’s secret as she’s the only one who could feel that he’s different. Akiyama’ll play detective while Nao’ll play the witness. There’s no way the Day team could turn things around without getting Yokoya’s number.

Don't worry, it probably improved the strategy meeting. Of course Nao's strategy is to not smuggle anything; Honest to a fault! There's one massive flaw in her reasoning though... It's true that they don't lose "Money", but they lose time/opportunities; If they go through 50 rounds "without losing any money" by not smuggling anything, they'll be BILLIONS in debt. Every round they give you a 'pass' with an empty case, is 1/50th of a pyrrhic victory! I think you should not be in charge of strategies. But fwiw, there's nothing wrong with doing this AT FIRST; Studying the opponent is worth a lot in these games. Figuring out their patterns, how they react to changes, etc. If she was able to think second level, she should have acted like that with a full case! If you poorly act a heavy case, people will pass you in. But if you think second level, you can 'poorly act a heavy case when the case ACTUALLY is heavy'! (Problem is if your opponent also think second level hah; In this case, you need to go back to poorly acting a heavy case when it's empty!) Is it weird to want Fukunaga to beat me to a pulp I mean, Fukunaga was a bit of a hypocrite there, even when people made the move she wanted, she still blamed them! Yup, there's the patterns thing, but there's also the balance; The losing side is pressured to make more moves... But this also means the winning side can act against them 'making moves', so if they DON'T make moves, it works for them! It's an interesting game about figuring out the level of thinking of your opponent; Will your opponent think "They're losing so they'll be forced to carry 100m, so I'll call them out 100m"? Or will they think "They're losing so they probably expect me to THINK they will carry 100m, so they'll likely carry 0 and expect me to doubt them 100m"? Did he REALLY fall for that? I think we found the "Nao" on the other team! Yup; Everyone passing them was atrocious for their team. Makes them easy to play against. The only way you can outplay them, is by mixing a % of pass and doubt, to make it harder for them to detect a pattern, and adapt. (Poker players will probably think about frequencies here!) And again it's a level of thinking thing, because after the first "doubt", do you 'pass' them because they'll likely suspect you'll doubt and bring nothing? Or do you doubt them again, because you figure they think you're going to pass them, as they'll adapt (on the first level)? (Poker players might also think about "Leveling yourself" with this one hah) To be honest, the SECOND Fukugana said 50.01m, I thought "Should've went with 51.27m or something like that"... 50.01m is possible to guess, by reading people. 51.27m is near impossible (without cheating - or 'clairvoyance'?) Ok this one is impossible. Could've been 60.01, 70.01, 80.01, or it could've been an adaptation as I talked about, 73.87m... So - unless the show is going a bit silly - I think we can deduce that there IS something fishy going on... I don't imagine it's clairvoyance, so 'cheating' seems more likely! Did he figure it out too? Now... How could they cheat? Well, I only got part of a theory, but I think it's a good one; Even as early as the previous episode, I thought they put WAY too much emphasis on what routes people will take and all that, when no one has any reason to care about it... And they went through it again in this episode. I think the route matters; I think there may be an observation point or something similar. Now, if they only guessed between "0" and "100m" I would have thought they were observing them walk to the room, so they would know how they act when they think no one is watching them... (Say, Nao carrying the empty case like it's nothing, before putting on her act soon as the door opens). But there's two problems with this... If the inspector arrives first, they don't get to see the person walk... (Could they relay the information to them?) Seeing someone walk with a case won't tell you the difference between 80m and 90m. So... If we assume Mouse-kun is NOT clairvoyant for real... Does the observation spot allow them to watch them withdraw the money? But first, it's supposed to be a closed room, and 2nd, if they could do that the game would be very silly. So I guess in the end I don't know what exactly is the 'cheat', but... I'd put my hand to the fire it has something to do with the routes and all!

The Country of Day players may be together as a team but it's still ultimately every man (or woman) for themselves, so their teamwork is...lacking to say the least. But thankfully the ever-chipper and optimistic Nao is willing to put herself out there as a smuggler! She's got an absolutely FOOLPROOF plan to win! And she's so proud of herself! Good going Nao! And she delivers such an Oscar-worthy performance of a girl carrying a big suitcase of money. I'm honestly amazed that she got passed! Although I think even Akiyama realized Nao was just a sacrificial lamb to give them a sense of the game and how the Country of Night plays. Yeah, I'm not surprised glasses guy used the same method as Nao. This is basically a game of chicken and the Country of Day is too scared and risk-verse to go big or go home so they keep playing it safe...even when the Country of Night starts raking in 100 million yen after 100 million yen. The fact that Fukunaga is willing to get aggressive when someone screws up doesn't help matters. It's not surprising that Akiyama is able to get their first win because you can't con a conman who knows how to con. But the Country of Night has a secret weapon: Yokoya (Natsuki Hanae!). Nao's significant character senses are tingling! Yokoya is the best inspector that the Country of Night could ask for! Sure he's surprisingly chummy with rats for some reason, but he's also seemingly clairvoyant and can see through any plans the Country of Day has. He even manages to see through Akiyama! (Is that rat part of his plan? Does it signal something to him or overhear what everyone is talking about? Are they bugged?) Honestly it's kind of amusing to me that Fukunaga fails the first time they try to be a smuggler, but it's KIKUZAWA of all characters who actually manages to turn things around. Obviously they can't see through Yokoya, but if they can call out the Country of Night's contraband, then they can slowly but surely catch up! But will it be that simple?

The contraband game is underway, and we can see that the challenge as a player is not only the game of chicken against the other team, but also having order and peace within your own team, which is a whole other beast. Fukunaga seems to have more of a presence than Akiyama currently in the Country of Day discussions. Though the team has made reasonable moves (albeit a bit cowardly), they have been 2 steps behind the Country of Night since round 1. And if Yokoya is really psychic, then it will be difficult for even Akiyama to turn the game around. It would be interesting to see Yokoya's influence on the Country of Night side, since that team seems to be more on the same page from the start.

This episode with the two organizers in the control room felt like I was watching a Japanese Game Show! We didn't get to see how the Yokoya vs Akiyama encounter resolved. But since Yokoya passed, then either Akiyama had nothing in the briefcase or he won right? Hopefully we will get to see later on what actually happened. I'm actually surprised our group of characters did not all start planning out what they would be doing. In the beginning, they were all very individualistic, and as stated, they were playing a Chicken Game. I wonder if the other team has similar characters, acting on their own volition and fears, or if they were all in on the plans as a group starting from the first round. There's gotta be some trick Yokoya has that hasn't been revealed. He knows Fukunaga's name. He knows exactly how much was in the briefcases. And finally, how exactly is the blonde guy going to turn it around? Is it some fool proof plan or a fool's plan?

Is it just me or Nao's ''not smuggle anything'' plan makes NO sense. Even aside from the fact that if they do not smuggle anything than anything OTHER TEAM smuggles is a net minus/debt to them. But also ANY money they do not smuggle becomes the OTHER TEAMS' at the end of the game anyway. Like when you try to smuggle in this game you are technically NOT smuggling your ''own'' money in a sense. You are trying to smuggle money that will become the ENEMY TEAMS' if you do not smuggle it. Not trying to smuggle your money in the other country's bank is NOT saving it, it is the same as giving up on that money entirely. So not smuggling is a net loss, getting money from the enemy doubting an empty case is SIMPLY NOT enough because even if the opponent team doubts 50 out of 50 times to an empty case they gain only HALF the money they will lose when the round ends so if the enemy team smuggles even 1 yen more than half their money they lose. Not smuggling AT ALL is simply stupid as that is the same as giving your ENTIRE MONEY POOL of 2.7 billion to the opponent side for free with AT MOST 1.35 billion that can be taken back which is obviously not gonna happen. And by that logic they also need to be less afraid of smuggling as if they do not smuggle they will lose that money either way so being afraid of losing the money that will be lost is stupid

Hey, I've replied to you before and appreciate that you're thinking deeply about the game rules and details. Nao's plan was a level 1 strategy that everyone else also thought of, which is why the others weren't enthusiastic when they heard it. It was shown to be too risk-adverse this episode, but it does make sense why they initially followed it. Not smuggling does give the money up to the other team at the end, but within a round it's the only play that counters "doubt, 100 million". Individually, if people try to smuggle 100 million and get called out, it goes to the enemy's swiss bank account permanently, so they can only do so 3 times before they have literally $0 in their ATM. So they have to be very careful about when they smuggle, and not smuggling doesn't use up one of these limited attempts, so it feels risk free with some potential gain. You can still win without smuggling and baiting doubts even if the potential money is capped, given you defend enemy smuggling attempts well on inspector turns (which they have NOT been doing), since their team also gets the remaining money not smuggled by the opponent.

''You can still win without smuggling and baiting doubts even if the potential money is capped,'' technically sure but i highly doubt it is possible to win that way. Not smuggling only gets you the wrong doubt half money and the enemy would obviously soon notice you never smuggle. And without a way to spy on the enemy stopping every single smuggle correctly would be hard, the enemy would assumingly easily make more than the money they lost to wrong doubts. I do get your logic of early round safe play though, thank you for the answer. I just simply felt like being ''chicken'' forever was not sustainable since they are NOT actually protecting their money

Well i will paste it here again ....nao's strategy is indeed very useful. This situation is like a composite situation. Nao's strategy is first step thinking...everyone can easily figure that out...and generally they will desire to earn money...and because of this desire they will start thinking about the next steps...like suppose they think that the other team is not going to call(step 1)...so i should carry 100m(step 2)...but what if the opponent team thought that the opponent guy will carry 100m because he thinks that we are not gonna call, so now we will call 100m(step 3) and so on.(generally things diverges after 4th or 5th step drastically and it is better to use logical misdirections to get more accurate results after these steps)..actually the main goal of this strategy is not about safety but it is about measuring the cognitive capabilities and emotional perception of the opponent...and tracking the way of thinking and make probabilistic model of thinking steps to win rounds....it is a 50 round game first few rounds are about measuring the opponent and it is better than firing bullet in dark...akiyama has a very good perception of human nature...I suppose this is why he didn't stop nao...and he will form his future strategies based on these observed results(notice everyone is not calling because they are afraid of their own loss..this can be countered by signing a contract that they will distribute the teams money equally after the game ends but akiyama didn't do anything like this so it may be possible that he is plotting something)....and look we can also prove that a traitor exist in akiyama's team... as i told you without any logical misdirection things diverges so much after step 4 thinking and with every correct guess in the each round the probability of finding a traitor in akiyama's team drastically increases....because in composite thinking (and direct and indirect bluffs from both teams are expected too like what fukanaga did)the expected results are that they will make a mistake without any logical misdirection ...but because they aren't making any so the probability of having a traitor in akiyama's team is exceptionally high(also it is impossible to determine that every will chicken out during their call, the next person could also not chicken out during his call because yokoya doesn't personally know any of them??..so thus it increases the possibility that yokoyais getting some hidden info)....I suppose this can be the proof of having a traitor in akiyama's team...now we will have to find who is the traitor based on the next observed behavior of the team members.....well there are many strategies in this game...I will just advice you to stick to the anime...and the mind reading thing is pure bullshit he is saying this because it will be weird if he calls 100m (because 100m is the highest amount of money that can be carried so every single other amount is less than this and as per the game rules inspector will be given all the money if there exist money in the suitcase and the inspector calls greater or equal that amount)or pass in each round with 100 percentage accuracy and giving up any money is too a wastage according to yokoya...so he is making this bluff and going all in by saying that he can read minds...this also shows that he has a very dominant personality because he chose mind reading bluff over intentionally losing few rounds to avoid suspection...

Yes I mentioned it...these types of strategies are not sustainable for the entire game...these are just initial baits to read the opponent and it doesn't matter if yokoya has counted the first step of thinking or not as it is about to see how much steps he can think if he is not cheating...akiyama most probably knows it this is why he didn't stop nao and didn't explain anything too to get the natural reaction....I have edited my previous comment and gave a proof of traitor in akiyama's team and also done a character analysis of yokoya...I suppose you will like to read that...

Well ig you didn't get the strategy....nao's strategy is indeed very useful. This situation is like a composite situation. Nao's strategy is first step thinking...everyone can easily figure that out...and generally they will desire to earn money...and because of this desire they will start thinking about the next steps...like suppose they think that the other team is not going to call(step 1)...so i should carry 100m(step 2)...but what if the opponent team thought that the opponent guy will carry 100m because he thinks that we are not gonna call, so now we will call 100m(step 3) and so on.(generally things diverges after 4th or 5th step drastically and it is better to use logical misdirections to get more accurate results after these steps)..actually the main goal of this strategy is not about safety but it is about measuring the cognitive capabilities and emotional perception of the opponent...and tracking the way of thinking and make probabilistic model of thinking steps to win rounds....it is a 50 round game first few rounds are about measuring the opponent and it is better than firing bullet in dark...akiyama has a very good perception of human nature...I suppose this is why he didn't stop nao...and he will form his future strategies based on these observed results(notice everyone is not calling because they are afraid of their own loss..this can be countered by signing a contract that they will distribute the teams money equally after the game ends but akiyama didn't do anything like this so it may be possible that he is plotting something)....and look we can also prove that a traitor exist in akiyama's team... as i told you without any logical misdirection things diverges so much after step 4 thinking and with every correct guess in the each round the probability of finding a traitor in akiyama's team drastically increases....because in composite thinking (and direct and indirect bluffs from both teams are expected too like what fukanaga did)the expected results are that they will make a mistake without any logical misdirection ...but because they aren't making any so the probability of having a traitor in akiyama's team is exceptionally high(also it is impossible to determine that every will chicken out during their call, the next person could also not chicken out during his call because yokoya doesn't personally know any of them??..so thus it increases the possibility that yokoyais getting some hidden info)....I suppose this can be the proof of having a traitor in akiyama's team...now we will have to find who is the traitor based on the next observed behavior of the team members.....well there are many strategies in this game...I will just advice you to stick to the anime...and the mind reading thing is pure bullshit he is saying this because it will be weird if he calls 100m (because 100m is the highest amount of money that can be carried so every single other amount is less than this and as per the game rules inspector will be given all the money if there exist money in the suitcase and the inspector calls greater or equal that amount)or pass in each round with 100 percentage accuracy and giving up any money is too a wastage according to yokoya...so he is making this bluff and going all in by saying that he can read minds...this also shows that he has a very dominant personality because he chose mind reading bluff over intentionally losing few rounds to avoid suspection...

the rat is the clairvoyant ..... anyways i forgot if they took their phones before the game started cos im pretty sure somebody feeds Yokoya the info (also them saying out loud how much they smuggle seem to support that), and im too sleepy to rewatch the episode to check if somebody from Nao's team were not on frame before the inspection by Yokoya starts. I wonder if it is not too late for a comeback since Akiyama went along with their plan to not withdraw any money or he just needed to be the last confirmation that someone betrayed them

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Well i will leave it here ....nao's strategy is indeed very useful. This situation is like a composite situation. Nao's strategy is first step thinking...everyone can easily figure that out...and generally they will desire to earn money...and because of this desire they will start thinking about the next steps...like suppose they think that the other team is not going to call(step 1)...so i should carry 100m(step 2)...but what if the opponent team thought that the opponent guy will carry 100m because he thinks that we are not gonna call, so now we will call 100m(step 3) and so on.(generally things diverges after 4th or 5th step drastically and it is better to use logical misdirections to get more accurate results after these steps)..actually the main goal of this strategy is not about safety but it is about measuring the cognitive capabilities and emotional perception of the opponent...and tracking the way of thinking and make probabilistic model of thinking steps to win rounds....it is a 50 round game first few rounds are about measuring the opponent and it is better than firing bullet in dark...akiyama has a very good perception of human nature...I suppose this is why he didn't stop nao...and he will form his future strategies based on these observed results(notice everyone is not calling because they are afraid of their own loss..this can be countered by signing a contract that they will distribute the teams money equally after the game ends but akiyama didn't do anything like this so it may be possible that he is plotting something)....and look we can also prove that a traitor exist in akiyama's team... as i told you without any logical misdirection things diverges so much after step 4 thinking and with every correct guess in the each round the probability of finding a traitor in akiyama's team drastically increases....because in composite thinking (and direct and indirect bluffs from both teams are expected too like what fukanaga did)the expected results are that they will make a mistake without any logical misdirection ...but because they aren't making any so the probability of having a traitor in akiyama's team is exceptionally high(also it is impossible to determine that every will chicken out during their call, the next person could also not chicken out during his call because yokoya doesn't personally know any of them??..so thus it increases the possibility that yokoyais getting some hidden info)....I suppose this can be the proof of having a traitor in akiyama's team...now we will have to find who is the traitor based on the next observed behavior of the team members.....well there are many strategies in this game...I will just advice you to stick to the anime...and the mind reading thing is pure bullshit he is saying this because it will be weird if he calls 100m (because 100m is the highest amount of money that can be carried so every single other amount is less than this and as per the game rules inspector will be given all the money if there exist money in the suitcase and the inspector calls greater or equal that amount)or pass in each round with 100 percentage accuracy and giving up any money is too a wastage according to yokoya...so he is making this bluff and going all in by saying that he can read minds...this also shows that he has a very dominant personality because he chose mind reading bluff over intentionally losing few rounds to avoid suspection...